中国军力将与美势均力敌？专家: 美优势无人匹敌

2015年09月28日08:17   环球时报

http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2015-09-28/doc-ifxieynu2551106.shtml

【环球军事报道】美国顶尖智库兰德公司近日发布《中美军力记分卡》，这份军力对比报告模拟台海、南沙两大战役，结果发现，“过去20年，中国解放军已转型为一支有战斗力的现代化军队，并将在近海地区的冲突中略占上风，在远海区域则与美国势均力敌”。这样的结论符合事实吗？对此应如何理解？《环球时报》记者专访兰德军力报告首席作者以及菲澳印等国权威学者，请他们谈对中国军力变化的看法。现摘录如下：

　　兰德军力报告首席作者何理凯(Eric Heginbotham)：我的预测是，短期来看中国军力会继续变强，美中之间军力差距会变得更小。不过美国军力底子雄厚，双方军力的平衡至少要过很多年才会实现。至于长期来看美中军力谁强谁弱，更多取决于两国经济实力，尤其是中国改革成不成功。

　　我想在此强调，兰德这份军力报告，目标不是得失输赢。我们的首要目标是向美国和太平洋地区的领导人们划出一条底线——想要更好决策不能把中国排除在外。美中两国需要就军事武器及战略等问题进行更多讨论。我觉得今后这样的讨论需要更多。

Rand Report Echoes Cold War Mind-set, Overstates Threats

29 September 2015   Source : Global Times (China)

http://www.rsis.edu.sg/media-highlight/idss/rand-report-echoes-cold-war-mind-set-overstates-threats/#.VgtH31ihc5s

The Rand Corporation recently released a report, The US-China Military Scorecard. The report assessed US and Chinese military capabilities in the context of two scenarios at different distances from China, one centered on Taiwan, and the other on the Nansha Islands. According to the report, over the past two decades, the PLA has transformed itself into a capable, modern military. In the 1990s, US strengths were evident, but now China enjoys an advantage in most plausible Asian conflict scenarios and US operational advantages in more distant scenarios are being undermined. Global Times reporter Chen Chenchen interviewed the lead author of the Rand report and experts from China and its neighboring countries to provide perspectives on China’s rising military power and consequent geopolitical effects.

Ei Sun Oh, a senior fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University

I think despite the latest findings by the Rand report that the gap between the US and China in terms of military capability is narrowing, both countries should not fixate themselves too much on comparing the relative military strength.

This is no more a world whereby we are experiencing Cold War. This is instead a world where we are experiencing acute economic slowdown.

China, as the world’s largest economic locomotive, if not the world’s largest economic power, should continue to focus on harnessing its national will in developing both its own as well as the world’s economy.

The US, on the other hand, should recognize that China indeed is a rising power, and is not to be taken lightly, so it should engage China in terms of, for example, cooperative efforts, such as cooperation in counter-terrorism where both countries are major victims.

As well as the Southeast Asian countries, we have to recognize that China is indeed a major regional power to stay, and we too have to very proactively engage China especially economically to deeper economic cooperation with China, so as to sort of promote more understandings between both sides, and thereby avoid misunderstandings especially in military terms.

We should also help China harness its growing military power in, from our point of view, in more productive areas such as anti-piracy and humanitarian efforts.